1. Gabatarwa & Bayyani
Wannan takarda ta bincike tana bincika tushen dogaron tattalin arziki da ke ƙarƙashin tsaron blockchain na Bitcoin. Binciken ya bincika yadda tsaron littafin lissafi da aka rarraba—wanda ake kiyaye shi ta hanyar tsarin yarjejeniya na Aikin Shaida (PoW)—yana da alaƙa ta asali da ƙarfin kasuwa, musamman farashin Bitcoin da lada na hako ma'adinai da ke da alaƙa. Marubutan suna ƙalubalantar ra'ayin blockchain a matsayin tsarin fasaha kawai, suna sanya shi a maimakon haka a matsayin wani hadadden tsarin zamantakewa da tattalin arziki inda ake sayen tsaro ta hanyar ƙarfafa tattalin arziki.
Babban jigo shine cewa kasafin tsaro na Bitcoin yana cikin gida kuma yana canzawa tare da yanayin kasuwa, yana haifar da raunin da ya bambanta da tsarin tsakiya na gargajiya. Binciken yana amfani da nazarin tattalin arziki don ƙididdige waɗannan alaƙa da gwada takamaiman hasashe game da dorewar tsaro.
2. Hanyar Bincike
Binciken ya ɗauki ingantacciyar hanyar gwaji don nazarin tushen tattalin arziki na tsaron Bitcoin.
2.1 Tushen Bayanai & Lokaci
Nazarin yana amfani da bayanan blockchain na yau da kullun da bayanan kasuwar Bitcoin daga 2014 zuwa 2019. Wannan lokacin ya ɗauki muhimman zagayowar kasuwa, gami da guduwar bijimi, gyare-gyare, da lokutan kwanciyar hankali, yana ba da ingantaccen bayanan saiti don nazarin lokaci-lokaci.
2.2 Hanyar ARDL
An yi amfani da samfurin Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) don bincika duka ƙananan motsi na ɗan gajeren lokaci da alaƙar ma'auni na dogon lokaci tsakanin masu canji. Wannan hanyar ta dace musamman don nazarin haɗin kai tsakanin masu canji waɗanda za a iya haɗa su da oda daban-daban. Gabaɗayan nau'in samfurin ARDL(p, q) da aka yi amfani da shi shine:
$y_t = \beta_0 + \sum_{i=1}^{p} \phi_i y_{t-i} + \sum_{j=0}^{q} \theta_j x_{t-j} + \epsilon_t$
Inda $y_t$ ke wakiltar ma'aunin sakamakon tsaro (misali, ƙimar hash), $x_t$ yana wakiltar masu canjin tattalin arziki (misali, farashin Bitcoin, lada na hako ma'adinai), kuma $\epsilon_t$ shine kalmar kuskure.
2.3 Hasashen Ma'auni
Binciken ya gwada takamaiman hasashe guda uku:
- H1 (Hasashen Hankali): Ma'aunin tsaron blockchain na Bitcoin yana da hankali ga canje-canje a cikin lada na hako ma'adinai.
- H2 (Hasashen Farashi-Tsaro): Akwai alaƙa kai tsaye tsakanin farashin Aikin Shaida da sakamakon tsaro da aka samu.
- H3 (Hasashen Gyara): Tsarin tsaron blockchain na Bitcoin yana nuna saurin gyara wanda ke mayar da shi zuwa hanyar ma'auni bayan farashin shigarwa ko girgiza farashi.
3. Babban Bincike & Sakamako
Nazarin gwaji ya haifar da wasu muhimman sakamako game da tushen tattalin arziki na tsaron Bitcoin.
3.1 Farashin Bitcoin & Haɗin Lada na Hako Ma'adinai
Sakamakon ya goyi bayan H1 sosai, yana nuna alaƙa ta asali da ƙididdiga mai mahimmanci tsakanin farashin kasuwa/lada na hako ma'adinai na Bitcoin da sakamakon tsaro na farko, da aka auna su da farko ta hanyar ƙimar hash na cibiyar sadarwa. An gano ƙarfin tsaro dangane da farashi yana da inganci kuma mai mahimmanci, yana nuna cewa hauhawar farashin yana jawo ƙarin saka hannun jari na hako ma'adinai, don haka yana ƙara tsaro (kuma akasin haka).
3.2 Bambance-bambancen Wuri a Farashin Hako Ma'adinai
Wani muhimmin binciken da ke goyan bayan H2 shine bambance-bambancen yanki a cikin alaƙar farashi-tsaro. Dogaron tsaron blockchain akan farashin hako ma'adinai ya fi bayyana sosai a China, jagoran hako ma'adinai na duniya a lokacin binciken, idan aka kwatanta da sauran yankuna. Wannan yana nuna cewa abubuwan tattalin arziki na gida (misali, farashin wutar lantarki, yanayin tsari) suna tasiri sosai ga ma'aunin tsaro na duniya.
3.3 Saurin Gyaran Ma'auni
Nazarin ya tabbatar da H3, yana nuna cewa bayan girgiza na waje ga farashin shigarwa (misali, hauhawar farashin makamashi) ko farashin fitarwa (faɗuwar farashin Bitcoin), ma'aunin tsaron blockchain na Bitcoin yana nuna komawa zuwa matsakaici. Tsarin yana da hanyoyin gyara kansa, kodayake saurin gyara ya bambanta dangane da girman da yanayin girgiza.
4. Tsarin Fasaha & Samfurin Lissafi
An tsara tsaron blockchain na Bitcoin ta hanyar matsalar haɓaka ribar mai hako ma'adinai. Samfurin da aka sauƙaƙa yana la'akari da wakilin mai hako ma'adinai wanda ya zaɓi ƙoƙarin lissafi $h$ (ƙimar hash).
Lada da ake tsammani a kowane lokaci na lokaci shine: $R = \frac{B \cdot P}{D \cdot H} \cdot h$
Inda $B$ shine lada na toshe, $P$ shine farashin Bitcoin, $D$ shine wahalar hako ma'adinai, kuma $H$ shine jimillar ƙimar hash na cibiyar sadarwa. Farashin shine: $C = c \cdot h$, inda $c$ shine farashin kowane ƙimar hash (da farko wutar lantarki).
Ribar ita ce: $\pi = R - C = \left( \frac{B \cdot P}{D \cdot H} - c \right) \cdot h$
A cikin ma'auni tare da shigarwa/fita kyauta, riba tana karkata zuwa sifili, yana haifar da yanayin: $\frac{B \cdot P}{D \cdot H} = c$. Wannan yana haɗa kasafin tsaro ($B \cdot P$) kai tsaye zuwa farashin harin, kamar yadda canza blockchain yana buƙatar sarrafa mafi yawan $H$.
5. Sakamakon Gwaji & Nazarin Bayanai
Gwajin iyaka na ARDL ya tabbatar da haɗin kai tsakanin jerin lokaci da aka canza log na farashin Bitcoin (BTCUSD) da ƙimar hash na cibiyar sadarwa (HASH). An kiyasta ƙarfin ƙimar hash dangane da farashi a cikin kewayon 0.6 zuwa 0.8, yana nuna cewa haɓakar farashin Bitcoin na 10% yana haifar da haɓakar ƙimar hash na 6-8% a cikin dogon lokaci.
Bayanin Chati (Ana nufin): Zane-zane na lokaci-lokaci daga 2014-2019 zai nuna jerin abubuwa masu alaƙa biyu: farashin Bitcoin (gefen hagu, mai yiwuwa akan ma'aunin log) da Ƙimar Hash na Cibiyar Sadarwa (gefen dama, shima ma'aunin log). Chatin zai nuna motsin su tare da juna, tare da ci gaban ƙimar hash yana jinkirin bayan manyan hauhawar farashi ta makonni ko watanni, yana kwatanta tsarin gyara. Wani chati na biyu zai yi yiwuwa ya zana kalmar gyaran kuskure (ECT) daga samfurin ARDL, yana nuna yadda ake gyara karkatattun daga ma'aunin dogon lokaci tsakanin farashi da ƙimar hash a kan lokutan masu zuwa, tare da ƙididdiga mara kyau kuma mai mahimmanci na ƙididdiga yana tabbatar da komawa zuwa matsakaici.
6. Tsarin Nazari: Aiwatar da Nazarin Shari'a
Shari'a: Kimanta Tasirin Tsari na Yanki akan Tsaron Duniya.
Yin amfani da tsarin takardar, zamu iya nazarin yanayin duniya na gaske: matsanancin China akan hako ma'adinai na cryptocurrency a cikin 2021. Tsarin ya annabta:
- Girgiza: Haɓakar farashin gida $c$ ga masu hako ma'adinai na China (saboda haramcin) ya tilasta wani yanki mai mahimmanci na ƙimar hash $H_{China}$ kashe layi.
- Tasiri Nan take: Ƙimar hash na duniya $H$ ta faɗi sosai. Ma'aunin tsaro (farashin kai hari) ya ragu daidai gwargwado.
- Gyaran Ma'auni: Ragewar $H$ yana ƙara lada a kowane ƙimar hash $\frac{B \cdot P}{D \cdot H}$ ga sauran masu hako ma'adinai a duniya, yana mai da hako ma'adinai ya fi riba a wani wuri.
- Sakamakon Dogon Lokaci: Ayyukan hako ma'adinai ya ƙaura zuwa yankuna masu ƙarancin $c$ (misali, Arewacin Amurka, Tsakiyar Asiya). $H$ na duniya yana murmurewa yayin da tsarin ya sami sabon ma'auni na tushen farashi, amma an canza rarraba yanki na samar da tsaro har abada. Saurin wannan gyaran ya dogara da motsin jari da lokacin tura kayayyakin more rayuwa.
Wannan shari'ar ta nuna amfanin tsarin wajen hasashen sakamakon tsaro daga girgiza manufofi.
7. Aikace-aikace na Gaba & Hanyoyin Bincike
Fahimtar daga wannan binciken yana da fa'ida mai faɗi:
- Zane na Yarjejeniya: Sanar da ƙirar tsarin yarjejeniya na zamani na gaba (misali, haɗakar Proof-of-Stake) waɗanda ke nufin raba tsaro daga kasuwannin makamashi masu canzawa. Canjin Ethereum zuwa PoS ana iya kallon shi azaman amsa kai tsaye ga raunin tattalin arziki da aka zayyana a cikin wannan takarda.
- Gudanar da Haɗari: Ba da damar ƙirar ƙirar haɗarin tsaro na ƙididdiga ga masu saka hannun jari na cibiyoyi da masu kula da su. Waɗannan samfuran na iya gwada tsaron blockchain a ƙarƙashin yanayi daban-daban na tattalin arziki da na siyasa.
- Manufofi & Tsari: Samar da tsari ga masu tsari don fahimtar tasirin tsarin manufofin hako ma'adinai na gida akan tsaron cibiyar sadarwa na duniya, suna matsawa bayan damuwar muhalli zuwa la'akari da kwanciyar hankalin kuɗi.
- Bincike na Gaba: Ƙaddamar da binciken zuwa wasu cryptocurrency na PoW, bincika tasirin tarawa na tafkin hako ma'adinai akan alaƙar farashi-tsaro, da ƙirar tsaro a ƙarƙashin yanayin rabin Bitcoin bayan 2024 tare da rage lada na toshe.
8. Nassoshi
- Ciaian, P., Kancs, d'A., & Rajcaniova, M. (Shekara). Dogaron tattalin arziki na tsaron Bitcoin. [Takarda Aiki]. Hukumar Tarayyar Turai, Cibiyar Bincike ta Haɗin gwiwa (JRC).
- Cong, L. W., & He, Z. (2019). Rushewar Blockchain da Kwangiloli masu wayo. Nazarin Nazarin Kuɗi, 32(5), 1754–1797.
- Abadi, J., & Brunnermeier, M. (2018). Tattalin Arzikin Blockchain. Takarda Aikin NBER No. 25407.
- Davidson, S., De Filippi, P., & Potts, J. (2016). Tattalin Arzikin Blockchain. Proceedings of the 2016 Montreal Economic Conference.
- Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: Tsarin Kuɗi na Peer-to-Peer.
- Gidauniyar Ethereum. (2022). Takarda Farin Ciki na Ethereum: Dandamali na Kwangila mai wayo na Zamani da Dandamali na Aikace-aikace marasa tsakiya. An samo daga ethereum.org.
9. Nazari na Asali: Ra'ayi na Masana'antu
Babban Fahimta: Wannan takarda tana ba da gaskiya mai ban sha'awa, tushen gaskiya wanda masu wa'azin crypto sukan yi watsi da shi: Tsaron Bitcoin da ake alfahari da shi ba kyauta ba ne na sirri; kayan abu ne da ake saya da babban jari na gaske a cikin kasuwar duniya mai inganci. "Littafin lissafi maras canzawa" yana da ƙarfi kamar yadda ƙarfafa tattalin arziki ke haifar da injin Aikin Shaida. Marubutan sun yi nasarar sake tsara tsaron blockchain daga yanayin fasaha na binary zuwa mai canjin tattalin arziki na ci gaba, suna bayyana sauye-sauyensa na asali da raunin yanki.
Kwararar Ma'ana: Hujjar an gina ta da kyau. Ya fara ne ta hanyar rushe matsalar amana a cikin tsarin da aka rarraba, yana gano PoW daidai a matsayin tsarin alama mai tsada (ra'ayi da aka kafa da kyau a cikin ka'idar wasa da tattalin arziki na bayanai). Sa'an nan kuma ya nuna cewa wannan farashin kasuwa ne ke saita shi. Zaɓin hanyar ARDL yana da hikima—ba kawai yana nuna alaƙa ba amma yana ɗaukar tsarin gyara kansa, yana bayyana yadda tsarin ke nishi da sake daidaitawa bayan girgiza. Binciken na musamman na China ba bayanin kafa ba ne; shine harbin kisa ga labarin rarraba, yana tabbatar da cewa tsaro yana da matuƙar tattarawa a cikin yankuna masu takamaiman fa'idodin farashi, yana haifar da babban haɗari na tsarin.
Ƙarfi & Kurakurai: Ƙarfin takardar shine ƙwararrun gwajinta da tsarin tattalin arziki mai haske. Ya guji sufancin blockchain. Duk da haka, babban aibinta shine ra'ayinta na baya (2014-2019). Yanayin ya canza sosai bayan 2021: ficewar China, haɓakar hako ma'adinai na cibiyoyi, yaduwar abubuwan da aka samo daga hako ma'adinai, da kuma jadawalin rabin da zai sa kuɗin ma'amala ya zama lada na farko. Samfurin yana buƙatar yin lissafi don waɗannan karyewar tsarin. Bugu da ƙari, yayin da yake ambaton "kasafin tsaro na cikin gida," bai cika ma'amala da yanayin doom-loop ba: faɗuwar farashi yana rage tsaro, wanda zai iya haifar da asarar amincewa da ƙarin faɗuwar farashi—maɓallin amsawa mai maimaitawa wanda tsarin kuɗi na gargajiya yana da na'urori masu karya kewayawa, amma Bitcoin ba shi da.
Fahimta mai Aiki: Ga masu saka hannun jari, wannan binciken ya ba da umarnin sabon ma'auni na bincike: Ƙarfin ƙimar hash. Kar ku kalli ƙimar hash na yanzu kawai; ƙirar yadda zai amsa da faɗuwar farashi na 50%. Ga masu haɓakawa, kiran waya ne don bincika yarjejeniyar bayan-PoS ko samfuran haɗakar, kamar yadda Ethereum yake da shi. Ga masu tsari, saƙon shine a daina kula da hako ma'adinai a matsayin batun makamashi kawai; muhimmin abin more rayuwa ne don yuwuwar tsarin kuɗi na gaba, kuma tattarawar yankinsa rauni ne mai kama da samun duk sabar biyan kuɗi na duniya a cikin ƙasa ɗaya. Makomar tsaron crypto ba ta cikin ƙarin hash ba, amma a cikin ƙirar tsarin inda tsaro yake da ƙarfi a cikin yanayin tattalin arziki mai faɗi—ƙalubalen da har yanzu ba a cika shi ba.
Wannan aikin ya yi daidai da ƙarin suka a fagen, kamar waɗanda daga Bankin Harkokin Kasashen Duniya (BIS) akan "ruɗi na rarraba" a cikin crypto, kuma yana ba da ƙwararrun ƙididdiga don irin waɗannan hujjoji. Ya tsaya a matsayin muhimmin karatu ga duk wanda ya wuce zagayon hype don fahimtar ainihin, ingantaccen injiniyan amana na blockchain.