Farashin da Kudi na Bitcoin: Bayyana Hanyar Dalili

1. Gabatarwa & Bayyani

Wannan takarda, "Farashin da Kudi na Bitcoin" na Marthinsen da Gordon, ta magance wani gibi mai mahimmanci a cikin binciken kudi na sirri. Yayin da yawancin bincike ke ƙoƙarin bayyana ko hasashen sauyin farashin Bitcoin, kaɗan ne suka yi nazari mai zurfi game da alaƙar da ke tsakanin farashinsa da kudin hakar sa. Ra'ayin da ya fi yaduwa, amma ba a tabbatar da shi sosai ba, shi ne cewa kudin haka ne ke zama tushen tsayar da farashi. Wannan binciken ya yi amfani da ka'idar tattalin arziki don karyata wannan ra'ayi da kuma bayyana gaskiyar da aka gani a binciken tattalin arziki: kudin haka yana bin sauyin farashi, ba ya gabace su ba.

2. Bita na Adabi

2.1 Dalilan Tattalin Arziki da Farashin Bitcoin

Samfuran kuɗi na gargajiya kamar Ka'idar Yawan Kuɗi (QTM) ko Daidaiton Ƙarfin Siyayya (PPP) ba su dace da binciken Bitcoin ba. Kamar yadda Baur et al. (2018) suka lura, Bitcoin har yanzu ba ya zama ma'auni ko hanyar musayar kuɗi da ya yadu. Yawancin kayayyaki da ayyuka ana farashinsu da kuɗin ƙasa, yayin da Bitcoin ke aiki a matsayin matakin daidaitawa a farashin musayar nan take, wanda hakan ya sa ba zai yiwu a ƙirƙiri ma'aunin farashi na al'ada ba.

2.2 Hasashen Cewa Kudin Haka ne Tsayar da Farashi

Wani hasashe da ya shahara, wanda Garcia et al. (2014) suka ba da shawarar, ya nuna cewa kudin ƙirƙirar Bitcoin (ta hanyar haka) ya kafa matakin tallafi. Ma'anar ita ce, idan farashin ya faɗi ƙasa da farashin samarwa, hakar zai zama marar riba, wanda zai haifar da haɗari ga tsaron bayanan blockchain. Ayyukan da ke da alaƙa na Meynkhard (2019) da Hayes (2019) sun yi amfani da kudin haka don hasashen farashi.

2.3 Kalubalen Binciken Tattalin Arziki

Binciken tattalin arziki na baya-bayan nan na Kristofek (2020) da Fantazzini & Kolodin (2020) sun ƙalubalanci wannan ra'ayi. Sakamakon bincikensu ya nuna juyar da zato na dalili: sauye-sauyen kudin haka yana jinkirta bayan sauye-sauyen farashin Bitcoin. Duk da haka, waɗannan binciken sun tsaya a gano alaƙar ba tare da bayar da bayanin tattalin arziki na ka'ida ba game da dalilin da yasa wannan jinkirin ke faruwa—wani gibi da wannan takarda ke nufin cika.

Babbar Matsala da aka Gano

Samfuran da suka dogara da kansu (ARIMA, GARCH) na iya ƙirƙirar sauyin farashi na ɗan lokaci amma sun kasa bayyana ko hasashen sauyin farashi mai tsanani (misali, haɓaka sau 8 ko faɗuwar kashi 80%) saboda rashin hanyoyin dalili na asali.

Manufar Bincike

Don bayyana silsilar dalili daga farashin Bitcoin zuwa kudinsa na haka, ta haka ne a bayyana dalilin da yasa samfuran binciken tattalin arziki suka kasa kuma kudi ke bin farashi.

3. Babban Fahimta: Mahangar Mai Bincike

Babban Fahimta

Takardar ta ba da mummunan rauni ga sauƙaƙan akidar "kudin haka a matsayin tushe". Ta gano daidai cewa haka aikin kasuwa ne wanda aka samo wanda ke motsa shi da tsammanin farashi, ba babban cibiyar kuɗi da ke ƙayyade ƙima ba. Ainihin tushe ba kudi ba ne, amma daidaiton tsaro na hanyar sadarwa inda fita da sake shiga ma'aikatan haka ke haifar da kwanciyar hankali mai ƙarfi.

Tsarin Ma'ana

Hujjar tana da sauƙi mai kyau: 1) Farashi ana tsara shi ta hanyar buƙatun hasashe a cikin kasuwa mara inganci. 2) Haɓakar farashi yana nuna alamar lada mafi girma a nan gaba, yana jawo hankalin ƙarin ma'aikatan haka da kashe kuɗi (CapEx) akan kayan aiki da makamashi. 3) Wannan ƙarin gasa yana haɓaka ƙimar hash ɗin hanyar sadarwa kuma, saboda haka, wahala da kudin kowane tsabar kuɗi. 4) Saboda haka, kudi mai canzawa ne a ciki yana amsa alamun farashi, ba madaidaicin abu na waje ba. Wannan yayi daidai da binciken da aka samu a kasuwannin kayayyaki inda samarwa ke faɗaɗa bayan hawan farashi, ba kafin ba.

Ƙarfi da Aibobi

Ƙarfi: Babban ƙarfin takardar shine amfani da ma'anar ka'idar microeconomic na lanƙwasa wadata ga sabon kadari. Ta yi nasarar sake fasalin haka a matsayin masana'antar gasa tare da abubuwan shigar da suka bambanta. Haɗin kai zuwa sakamakon binciken tattalin arziki (gwajin dalilin Granger) yana da ƙarfi.
Aibobi: Binciken, ko da yake yana da inganci a ka'ida, yana da ɗan girma. Bai cika ƙididdige madaukai ko ƙirƙirar samfurin jinkirin lokacin da ke ciki ba. Hakanan yana rage rawar hakar hukumomi tare da kwangilolin wutar lantarki na ƙayyadaddun farashi, waɗanda zasu iya raba kudi daga farashin makamashi na lokaci-lokaci, wani ƙayyadadden bayani da aka haskaka a cikin rahotanni daga kamfanoni kamar CoinShares Research.

Fahimta Mai Aiki

Ga masu saka hannun jari: Kada ku kula da samfuran "farashin samarwa" don ciniki na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Su alamun jinkiri ne. A maimakon haka, ku lura da abubuwan da aka samo daga ƙimar hash da ma'aunin fitar da ma'aikatan haka. Ga masu tsara manufofi: Dokoki da ke niyyar amfani da makamashin haka na iya zama ƙasa da tasiri fiye da yadda ake zato idan ma'aikatan haka masu karɓar farashi ne, ba masu tsara farashi ba. Ya kamata a mai da hankali kan abubuwan da ke haifar da sauyin farashi na gefen buƙata.

4. Silsilar Dalili: Daga Farashi zuwa Kudin Haka

4.1 Tsarin Ka'idar

Jigon gudunmawar takardar shine ƙirƙirar silsilar dalili. Ta nuna cewa farashin Bitcoin ana ƙayyade shi da farko ta hanyar buƙatun hasashe da yanayin kasuwa—abubuwan da suka fi kasancewa a waje da tsarin haka. Wani mummunan girgiza farashi yana ƙara yawan kuɗin shiga da ake tsammani ga ma'aikatan haka. Wannan yana aiki azaman alama, yana ƙarfafa:

Shigar Sabbin Ma'aikatan Haka: An jawo hankalinsu da ganin riba.
Saka Hannun Jari a cikin Ƙarin Kayan Aiki/Mai Inganci: Ƙara ƙarfin lissafi na gaba ɗaya na hanyar sadarwa (ƙimar hash).
Daidaita Wahalar Haka: Ƙa'idar Bitcoin ta daidaita wahalar wasan sirri na sirri don kiyaye lokacin toshe na kusan mintuna 10. Ƙimar hash mafi girma tana haifar da wahala mafi girma.

Ƙarin wahala da gasa don tubalan suna haɓaka kudin gefe na samar da sabon Bitcoin. Don haka, haɓakar farashi ya haifar da jerin abubuwan da a ƙarshe suka haɓaka farashin samarwa.

4.2 Tsarin Lissafi

Ana iya fassara alaƙar ta hanyar samfurin da aka sauƙaƙe. Bari $P_t$ ya zama farashin Bitcoin a lokacin $t$, kuma $C_t$ ya zama matsakaicin kudin haka. Ƙimar hash $H_t$ aiki ce na ribar da ake tsammani, wanda farashi ke motsa shi.

$H_t = f(E[P_{t+1}], \text{Kudin Makamashi})$

Wahala $D_t$ tana daidaitawa bisa ga $H_t$:

$D_{t+1} = D_t \cdot \frac{ \text{Manufar Lokacin Tohu} }{ \text{Ainihin Lokacin Tohu} } \approx g(H_t)$

Kudin $C_t$ to aikin makamashi ne da ake buƙata don warware toshe a wahala $D_t$ tare da ingancin kayan aiki $\eta$ da farashin makamashi $E$:

$C_t \approx \frac{ D_t \cdot \text{Makamashi kowace Hash} \cdot E }{ \eta \cdot \text{Ladar Tohu na Bitcoin} }$

Tunda $D_t$ $H_t$ ne ke motsa shi, wanda $P_t$ ke motsa shi, muna samun silsilar dalili: $P_t \rightarrow H_t \rightarrow D_t \rightarrow C_t$. Wannan ya tsara dalilin da yasa $C_t$ ke jinkirta $P_t$.

5. Sakamakon Gwaji & Binciken Bayanai

Yayin da cikakken binciken na zahiri yana cikin takardar asali, sakamakon da ake nufi ya yi daidai da binciken tattalin arziki na baya. Gwajin dalilin Granger akan bayanan lokaci-lokaci na farashin Bitcoin da ma'aunin kudin haka mai haɗaka (wanda ya haɗa da kudin kayan aiki, farashin makamashi, da ƙimar hash) zai iya nuna:

Babu Dalilin Granger daga Kudi zuwa Farashi: Ƙin hasashen cewa kudi yana hasashen farashi.
Mahimman Dalilin Granger daga Farashi zuwa Kudi: Tabbatar da cewa farashin da ya gabata yana taimakawa wajen hasashen kudin haka na gaba.

Bayanin Chati (Ra'ayi): Chati mai axis biyu a cikin tsawon shekaru 5. Babban axis (hagu) yana nuna farashin Bitcoin na USD, yana nuna sauyi mai yawa tare da manyan kololuwa da ramuka. Axis na biyu (dama) yana nuna ma'aunin kudin haka. A zahiri, lanƙwasa kudin yana bin lanƙwasa farashi sosai amma tare da sanannen jinkiri na makonni zuwa watanni, musamman bayan manyan motsin farashi. Yankuna masu inuwa suna haskaka lokutan da farashi a fili ya jagoranci haɓakar kudi (misali, bayan haɓakar rabin 2020).

6. Tsarin Bincike: Wani Lamari na Aiki

Lamari: Kimanta Saka Hannun Jari na Haka Bayan Haɓakar Farashi

Yanayi: Farashin Bitcoin ya tashi kashi 50% a cikin wata ɗaya. Wani asusu yana yin la'akari da saka hannun jari a cikin sabon aikin haka.

Aiwatar da Tsarin:

Alamar Buƙata: Bincika dalilin haɓakar farashi (misali, labarin karɓar hukumomi, kariya na macro). Shin yana da ɗorewa?
Kimanta Jinkiri: Gane cewa "babban riba" na yanzu hoto ne. Yi amfani da samfurin dalili: $\text{Farashi} \uparrow \rightarrow \text{Sabbin Ma'aikatan Haka Suna Shiga} \rightarrow \text{Ƙimar Hash} \uparrow \rightarrow \text{Wahala} \uparrow \rightarrow \text{Kudin Gaba} \uparrow \rightarrow \text{Gefen Gaba} \downarrow$.
Matrix na Yanke Shawara: Hasashen jinkirin lokaci don daidaita ƙimar hash/wahala (a tarihi watanni 1-3). Ƙirƙirar kudaden gaba bisa ga haɓakar ƙimar hash da ake hasashe. Ya kamata batun saka hannun jari bai dogara da gefen yanzu ba amma akan gefen da ake hasashe bayan masana'antu ta daidaita.

Wannan tsarin yana hana kuskuren gama gari na ƙima da yawa na dawowar dogon lokaci ta amfani da bayanan kudi masu jinkiri.

7. Ayyuka na Gaba & Hanyoyin Bincike

Samfuran Hasashe: Haɗa wannan fahimtar dalili cikin sabbin samfuran hasashe. Maimakon amfani da kudi don hasashen farashi, yi amfani da farashi da alamomin ra'ayi don hasashen ƙimar hash da wahalar haka na gaba, waɗanda ke da mahimmanci ga binciken tsaro na hanyar sadarwa.
ESG & Binciken Manufofi: Fahimci cewa amfani da makamashin Bitcoin aikin farashinsa ne. Manufofin da ke nufin rage sawun carbon dole ne su yi la'akari da gefen buƙata (masu motsa farashi) daidai da gefen wadata (tushen makamashi).
Ƙimar Hannun Jari na Haka: Aiwatar da tsarin don ƙima kamfanonin haka da aka yi ciniki a bainar jama'a. Kuɗin shiga na gaba ba kawai "farashi cire kudi" ba ne, amma sun dogara da ikonsu na wuce gona da iri na ƙara wahala da sarrafa zagayowar CapEx da motsin farashi ke haifarwa.
Binciken Kadari masu Tsallakewa: Ƙara tsarin samfurin zuwa wasu kudi na sirri na Proof-of-Work da kwatanta elasticity da tsarin jinkiri na alaƙar farashi-zuwa-kudi.

8. Nassoshi

Marthinsen, J. E., & Gordon, S. R. (2022). Farashin da Kudi na Bitcoin. Bita na Kwata na Tattalin Arziki da Kudi. DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2022.04.003
Baur, D. G., Hong, K., & Lee, A. D. (2018). Bitcoin: Hanyar Musayar Kuɗi ko Kadarori na Hasashe? Jaridar Kasuwannin Kuɗi na Duniya, Cibiyoyi da Kuɗi, 54, 177-189.
Hayes, A. S. (2019). Farashin Bitcoin da farashin samar da shi na gefe: goyon baya ga ƙimar asali. Jaridar Tattalin Arziki da Aiki, 26(7), 554-560.
Fantazzini, D., & Kolodin, N. (2020). Shin ƙimar hash tana shafar farashin Bitcoin? Jaridar Gudanar da Haɗari da Kuɗi, 13(11), 263.
Kristofek, M. (2020). Bitcoin, haka da amfani da makamashi. Lab na Kadarori na Dijital.
Binciken CoinShares. (2023, Janairu). Hanyar Sadarwar Hakar Bitcoin. An samo daga https://coinshares.com
Isola et al. (2017). Fassarar Hoto-zuwa-Hoto tare da Cibiyoyin Gaba da Gaba na Sharadi (CycleGAN). Taron IEEE akan Hangen Nesa na Kwamfuta da Tsarin Tsarin (CVPR). [Misalin nassi na waje don ingancin hanya].